Bet on England

One of the pleasing things about working for a bookmaker is everyone's assumption that you've got inside information. One of the worst is them discovering you've not. Be it the Grand National or the FA Cup they all want the inside track. Of course, if you do give them a winner - on two legs or four - they'll tell friends it was their idea. And you should see the look on their faces when the horse finishes last or the team is knocked out in the first round.

But as I pack my lederhosen and took out my Know Your Sausage Guide (Third edition) they're on the phone again asking who'll win the World Cup. The simple, somewhat disappointing, answer is I don't know. The fact you can almost certainly narrow it down to six countries should make it easier though.

Since 1930 only seven teams have won the tournament. Given that Uruguay didn't make it, that leaves Brazil (5 times), Germany and Italy (3), Argentina (2) and England and France (once). All of them should go well, he said, sticking his neck out. Some should go better than others, he continued, cryptically.

Are the French as good as they were? Has Henry ever done it for Les Bleus, has time caught up with 'Zimmerdine' Zidane? Quite possibly. The Italians are rock solid but often unimaginative. They should breeze their group, but will they have enough in the latter stages? Argentina? Expectations are low after their inglorious failure in Japan and they've lots of injuries.

Brazil, as John Motson will doubtless remind us, have won it in Europe before. They're obscenely talented and have in Ronaldinho the best player of his generation (and a role model to the buck-toothed everywhere). But at 9/4 they don't offer much value.

The hosts are always there or thereabouts. They were rubbish last time but snuck into the final, their sixth in the last ten tournaments. And then there's England. Now that Liverpool's answer to Shrek seems set to emerge from his oxygen tent in time for the Paraguay game, things are looking good. But we've said that before and someone has hit a penalty into Row Z and we've all cried like babies or torn the wing mirror off an Audi (damn their Teutonic efficiency).

So there you go, you can cross off Angola and Iran. Ask me one on history, I'm good at history. Battle of Bannockburn? 1314. Told you.